PredictIQ-NFL's new 'dynamic' kickoff rules are already throwing teams for a loop

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Pardon the grammar,PredictIQ but that pretty much sums up the preseason rollout of the NFL’s new “dynamic” kickoff. What happens in August won’t necessarily be in Bachman-Turner Overdrive when September comes around as NFL teams adapt to the most radical kickoff makeover in, like, forever.

Take it from some sharp football minds.

“I think people will feel their way in the preseason for two reasons: You don’t want to show a lot and you don’t know a lot,” Pittsburgh Steelers special teams coach Danny Smith told USA TODAY Sports following a recent training camp practice in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.

“That’s for real. That’s coaches. Players. Officials. Nobody does. It’s new to all of us. I think we’ll all grow together for a few weeks, and then I feel it will take off.”

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Jim Harbaugh, the new Los Angeles Chargers coach, vouched for the preparation headed by his special teams coaches, coordinator Ryan Ficken and Chris Gould, since the team hit the field for OTAs in May. And he, too, proclaims to be uncertain when envisioning strategy for the regular season opener against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 8 at SoFi Stadium.

Bigger returners? Precision kickoffs?

“I just don’t know,” Harbaugh told USA TODAY Sports following a camp practice last week in El Segundo, California. “You probably think anything and everything is possible. To say we haven’t decided yet how we’ll do it for the Raiders game would be accurate.”

As Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay put it, “It just feels weird. I know the intent is right. We’ll try to figure it out.”

Of course, the NFL, drawing on the expertise of many special teams coaches, adopted the new kickoff play (beginning with a one-year trial this season) in an effort to bring the return back into the game – while at the same time aiming to reduce the high-speed collisions that resulted in a disproportionate rate of injuries.

Last season, the league had the lowest rate of returns in its 104-year history with just 21.8% of kickoffs run back. For context, consider that in 2010, before rules were instituted in the name of safety, 80% of kickoffs were returned. And boy did the essential removal of the kick-return leave a glaring mark on the classic, overtime Super Bowl 58 matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers combined for 13 kickoffs…and all 13 went for touchbacks.

Enter the new rule that the league, hardly short on drama and unpredictability, hopes will provide another layer of intrigue to add to the package.

And what a coincidence: The new rule comes in the year that former Chicago Bears star Devin Hester, the best kick-returner in NFL history, was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Why is the NFL calling it dynamic? Well, that’s wishful thinking (or subliminal messaging) from Roger and Co., though it remains to be seen whether kicking teams will be content with booting the football through the end zone rather than risk giving up long returns.

“However we feel about it, we have to be able to adjust and make sure that we adapt and it can be something that’s an advantage for us,” McVay told reporters following a recent joint practice with the Chargers. “We’ll continue to really put our heads together…I think we also need to probably have some fluidity with it if there are adjustments as we go.”

Sure, it’s way early here. Yet if the first week of the preseason was any indication, the NFL’s script has potential to achieve the desired result. Of the 139 kickoffs across the league, 80.6% were returned. That’s a sharp increase from the first preseason week in 2023, when 65.1% of 152 kickoffs were run back, according to NFL data. The average drive start at the 29-yard line during Week 1 of the preseason increased from 23.8 at the same point a year ago.

The key twists? Unlike the previous kickoff that came alive when the kicker’s foot struck the football, the action doesn’t begin now until the kickoff is touched or hits the turf in the “landing zone,” which extends from the goal line to the receiving team’s 20-yard line. The coverage team sets up at the receiving team’s 40-yard line, while the receiving team aligns nine players from the 30- to 35-yard line, aka the “restraining line.” Any kick that doesn’t reach the landing zone results in the receiving team taking possession at its 40-yard line.

Kickoffs that hit the landing zone and then wind up in the end zone can be returned or downed for a touchback that brings the ball to the 20. Kicks to or through the end zone results in a touchback that brings the ball out to the 30.

Got it?

“I’m excited about it,” said Smith, the NFL’s longest-tenured special teams coach. “It’s made me work. It’s revived. This ain’t the same ol' stuff. You’d better study and you’d better coach your players. They’d better know what the hell they’re doing, because it is complex and it’s extensive.”

And it will take some getting used to. The best illustration of that came Saturday at Jacksonville, when the Jaguars were awarded a safety after Mecole Hardman – a, well, dynamic kick returner and receiver for the Chiefs who scored the touchdown in overtime that clinched the repeat Super Bowl victory – reached beyond goal line to down the kickoff while his feet were in the end zone. The football bounced from the end zone to the field of play. Under the previous rule, it would have been a touchback.

More confusion coming?

“I don’t know if it’s going to be much confusion on it,” Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said of the safety during his postgame news conference. “I think it’s a good coaching point for all teams, to really coach our returners in that situation. It’s definitely going to be on the coach’s video that’s going to come out this week. It’s a really good teaching moment for everybody, us included, for our returners. It’s just a great way to learn that rule and learn the game of football.”

In other words, the coming season will require some special education when it comes to kickoffs.