Current:Home > ContactThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -Dynamic Wealth Solutions
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-16 17:44:40
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (86962)
Related
- Highlights from Trump’s interview with Time magazine
- How to watch Lollapalooza: Megan Thee Stallion, Kesha scheduled on livestream Thursday
- Carrie Underwood will return to ‘American Idol’ as its newest judge
- Proposed rule would ban airlines from charging parents to sit with their children
- Juan Soto to be introduced by Mets at Citi Field after striking record $765 million, 15
- Bruce Willis and Wife Emma Heming's Daughters Look So Grown Up in New Video
- Jake Paul rips Olympic boxing match sparking controversy over gender eligiblity criteria
- Cardi B announces she's pregnant with baby No. 3 as she files for divorce from Offset
- Apple iOS 18.2: What to know about top features, including Genmoji, AI updates
- Fiery North Dakota derailment was latest crash to involve weak tank cars the NTSB wants replaced
Ranking
- Rolling Loud 2024: Lineup, how to stream the world's largest hip hop music festival
- Missouri bans sale of Delta-8 THC and other unregulated CBD intoxicants
- Chrissy Teigen reveals 6-year-old son Miles has type 1 diabetes: A 'new world for us'
- CrowdStrike sued by shareholders over huge software outage
- Senate begins final push to expand Social Security benefits for millions of people
- Behind the lines of red-hot wildfires, volunteers save animals with a warm heart and a cool head
- There are so few doctors in Maui County that even medical workers struggle to get care
- Jamie Lee Curtis Apologizes for Toilet Paper Promotion Comments After Shading Marvel
Recommendation
Have Dry, Sensitive Skin? You Need To Add These Gentle Skincare Products to Your Routine
Protecting against floods, or a government-mandated retreat from the shore? New Jersey rules debated
14-month-old boy rescued after falling down narrow pipe in the yard of his Kansas home
Wildfires encroach on homes near Denver as heat hinders fight
Appeals court scraps Nasdaq boardroom diversity rules in latest DEI setback
Biden’s new Title IX rules are all set to take effect. But not in these states.
Russia releases US journalist and other Americans and dissidents in massive 24-person prisoner swap
Carrie Underwood will return to ‘American Idol’ as its newest judge